Pehle bech rahe the, ab khareedne ki hod; Bharatiya bazaar me kyu hui FPIs ki jordar wapsi? Ye hain 5 kaaran

Pehle bech rahe the, ab khareedne ki hod

Bharatiya share bazaar November ke mahine me nayi oonchai par pahunch gaya. Iski ek badi wajah videshi portfolio niveshakon, yaani FPIs ki wapas hoti khareedari hai.

Pichhle kuch mahino me tasveer bilkul ulti thi. September aur October me FPIs ne Bharatiya shares se bada paisa nikala tha. Lekin November ke shuru ke kuch trading sessions me hi unhone hazaaron crore rupaye ki khareedari kar di, isse Sensex aur Nifty me nayi jaan aa gayi.

Aankdon me kya badla?

September 2026 me FPIs ne Bharatiya bazaar se lagbhag 35,861 crore rupaye nikale. October me bhi lagbhag 34,843 crore rupaye ki bikwali hui. Matlab sirf do mahine me 70,000 crore rupaye se zyada ki bikwali ho gayi.

November me tasveer badal gayi. NSDL ke aankdon ke hisaab se, 2 se 9 November ke beech FPIs ne lagbhag 53,739 crore rupaye ki khareedari ki. Akele 9 November ko hi lagbhag 14,768 crore rupaye ke shares khareede gaye.

Phir bhi ek baat dhyan rakhni chahiye. Poore 2026 me FPIs ki abhi bhi lagbhag 2.41 lakh crore rupaye ka net outflow hai. Isliye abhi ye kehna jaldbazi hogi ki unki lambi bikwali poori tarah khatam ho gayi hai.

Toh sawal ye hai ki aakhir FPIs ka mann achanak kyu badal gaya? Kya Bharat me nivesh ke mauke badh gaye hain, ya duniya ke bazaaron me ho rahe badlav zyada zimmedar hain? Chaliye 5 kaaranon ko samajhte hain.

Kaaran 1: AI shares ki chamak feeki padi

Pichhle kuch saalon me duniya ke bade niveshakon ne kaafi paisa AI se judi companies me lagaya tha. America ki chip companies ke saath South Korea, Taiwan aur Japan ki semiconductor companies bhi pasand bani hui thi.

Lekin ab in companies ki oonchi valuation aur AI infrastructure par lagatar badhte kharch ko lekar sawal uth rahe hain. Niveshak jaanna chahte hain ki in par arabon dollar kharch karke wali companies kab aur kitna munafa kamayengi.

In chintaon ke chalte 5 se 10 November ke beech global tech shares me badi bikwali hui. America ki chip companies se lekar Asia ki badi semiconductor companies tak ko nuksan uthana pada. Ek din me kai shares me 5 se 10 percent tak toot gaye.

Sabse bada jhatka ek badi American chip company ko laga. October me record high par pahunchne ke baad uska share lagbhag 11 percent toota, aur uski market value me lagbhag 1.7 trillion dollar ki kami aa gayi. Iske baad wo duniya ki sabse badi company nahi reh gayi.

Nateeja ye hua ki bade videshi niveshak apne paisa global tech se hatake, Bharat me AI aur semiconductor se seedhe judi badi listed companies ka weight America aur kuch Asian bazaaron ke muqable kam hai. Isliye tech shares ki global pitai ke beech Bharatiya bazaar niveshakon ko ek alag vikalp ke roop me dikh raha hai.

Kaaran 2: Crude ke daam me badi girawat

Kachche tel ka sasta hona Bharat ke liye achha hota hai, kyunki Bharat apni zaroorat ka 80 se 85 percent tel import karta hai. Jab crude sasta hota hai toh Bharat ka import bill ka bojh kam hota hai.

Pichhle kuch mahino me America aur Iran ke beech tanav ke chalte crude ke daam kaafi badh gaye the. Brent crude 120 dollar prati barrel ke paar nikal gaya tha. Mehange tel se badhti mehngai ko lekar chinta bhadak gayi thi.

Lekin ab halat badal rahe hain. 10 November ko international market me Brent crude girkar 89.16 dollar prati barrel tak pahunch gaya, jo lagbhag do mahine ka nichla star tha. America aur Iran ke beech tanav kam hone ke ummeed se tel sasta hua hai.

Saath hi Brent ka yeh fai kaafi tez raha. Dekhna ye hai ki crude ki girawat se tel ki maang kam ho sakti hai ya nahi, aur iska asar aage kya hoga. Iske alawa crude ke daam me girawat se tel par nirbhar companies ko sasta tel mil sakta hai, jisse mehngai me bhi kami dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yahi wajah hai ki crude ki girawat FPIs ka bharosa badha rahi hai.

Haan, 11 November ko Brent crude ke baar phir 92 dollar prati barrel ke paar trade kar raha tha. Magar share bazaar me tezi tab bhi barkarar thi.

Kaaran 3: Bharatiya companies ki kamai me sudhaar

Kai Bharatiya companies ne apne timaahi nateeje jaari kiye hain, jo kaafi achhe rahe hain. Ye baat FPIs ko aakarshit karti hai, kyunki videshi niveshak ye bhi dekhte hain ki ham aane wale samay me companies se kitna munafa kama sakte hain.

Market experts maante hain ki gharelu maang, banking karobaar, automobile aur doosre sectors me behtar sambhavnayein Bharatiya shares ko aakarshak bana rahi hain.

Iske alawa bazaar me pehle aayi girawat ke baad kuch badi companies ki valuation bhi pehle ke muqable zyada fair valuation ke star par pahunchi thi. September me Nifty ka price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 20.5 tha, jabki September 2024 me ye lagbhag 25 tha. Halaanki November ki tez badhat ke baad valuation dobara mehngi ho sakti hai.

Kaaran 4: Capital gains tax me rahat ki ummeed

FPIs ki Bharat wapsi ke peeche ek wajah capital gains tax se judi ummeed bhi hai. SEBI ne sarkar se FPIs ke liye 12.5 percent long term capital gains tax (LTCG) khatam karne ki sifarish ki hai. Agar sarkar ye prastav maan leti hai, toh FPIs ka Bharat me nivesh karne ka munafa badhega aur Bharatiya bazaar me nivesh zyada aakarshak ho sakta hai.

Vitt Mantri ne vichar karne ke sanket diye hain. Halaanki abhi tak LTCG tax ghatane ya khatam karne ka koi faisla nahi kiya gaya hai.

Kaaran 5: Mid-term chunaav me American rashtrapati ki party ki haar

FPIs ki Bharat wapsi ke peeche America me mid-term chunaav ke nateeje bhi hain. 3 November ko chunaav me Democratic Party ne sansad ke dono sadnon par niyantran hasil kar liya. Isse American rashtrapati ke liye bade faisle lena mushkil ho jayega.

American rashtrapati ki tariff neetiyon aur Iran ke saath yuddh ke pichhle kuch mahino me antar-rashtriya bazaaron me anishchitata badhi thi. Sabko darr tha ki anishchitata badhne se videshi niveshak risk wali cheezon par zyada dhyan nahi denge, aur America ke bazaar me zyada paisa lagayenge. Isliye jab anishchitata kam hoti hai, toh FPIs ka bharosa Bharat jaisi ubharti arthvyavasthaon par badh sakta hai.

Chunaav ke nateeje ke baad 4 November ko American dollar me girawat aayi, jabki Wall Street me tezi dekhne ko mili. Bazaar ko ummeed hai ki America me bade badlavon ke baad tariff par tanav ghatta hai, toh FPIs ka bharosa Bharat jaisi ubharti arthvyavasthaon par badh sakta hai.

Aage kya dekhna hoga?

Kul milakar, Bharatiya bazaar me FPIs ki wapsi ke peeche sirf Bharat ki mazboot aarthik sambhavnayein nahi, balki duniya ke doosre bazaaron me badalte nivesh ke mauke bhi hain.

Aane wale dino me teen cheezon par nazar rakhna zaroori hoga - kachche tel ke daam, America vyapar ki disha, aur Bharatiya companies ki kamai.

Agar ye paristhitiyan FPIs ki taraf rehti hain, toh FPIs ki yeh khareedari bani reh sakti hai.

Disclaimer: Yeh lekh keval jankari aur shiksha ke uddeshya se hai. Yeh kisi share ya fund ko khareedne ya bechne ki salah nahi hai. Nivesh se pehle official offer document padhein aur zaroorat ho to SEBI-registered investment adviser se salah lein. Bazaar me nivesh me jokhim hota hai.